Half-Life 3: Days Away From Being Announced – or Just Another Overcooked Fan Theory?

The “Half-Life 3 confirmed” saga has reached yet another chapter. A Reddit user now claims to know the exact timeframe when Valve could finally announce Half-Life 3 – and this time, it sounds a bit more than just a meme. The theory is based on patterns on the Steam front page and this year’s sale schedule, while in the background several hints about internal projects under the codename HLX are fuelling hopes that some kind of new Half-Life game really is edging closer to a reveal.

The fan theory starts from a simple observation: Valve uses the large top banner on the Steam homepage to highlight its biggest events and promotions. One Reddit user – who has tracked similar patterns before – went through this year’s autumn and winter sales and all the featured campaigns, and concluded that there’s a suspiciously large “empty” window between November 18 and December 8. The logic is that Valve rarely leaves such a big gap on its own prime marketing real estate, so they believe some major announcement could land there – and given the current wave of rumours, many fans immediately jump to Half-Life 3.

This hype didn’t appear out of nowhere. In recent months, several Valve-focused “insiders” – including well-known YouTube creators – have been talking about a project under the HLX codename, claiming it’s already in the optimisation phase. Some reports even say the game is playable from start to finish and that a trailer is in production. Dataminers have also spotted internal group names inside Valve systems, such as “hlx”, “hlxaudio” and “hlxartists”, which at the very least suggests that something more substantial and Half-Life-adjacent is happening at the company. From there, the fan imagination pretty much launches itself into orbit.

The timing arguments go further. Several sources had already pointed to November as a likely window for a potential Half-Life 3 (or HLX) trailer, with some even suggesting The Game Awards 2025 as a possible stage for a reveal. On top of that, Valve has scheduled this year’s Autumn Sale unusually early and previously warned developers that more big beats are coming in November. This is where the “gap” between Steam homepage banners comes in – fans have already mentally reserved that slot for the new Half-Life game in an era where every filename, event date and promo asset is enough to spawn a full-blown conspiracy theory.

There is, however, a very important other side to all this. Valve has not officially confirmed anything – not that HLX is actually Half-Life 3, not that any sort of November reveal is happening. The company is notorious for working on projects quietly for years and then announcing them relatively late, when they’re already close to release. Half-Life: Alyx is the classic example: only a few months separated the announcement from launch. At the same time, history has shown that most “signs” around Half-Life 3 haven’t led anywhere in the long run, so the more level-headed voices are once again urging caution: yes, a game under the HLX codename may exist, but that doesn’t automatically mean a traditional, numbered sequel with Gordon Freeman at the centre.

What is different now compared to previous hype cycles is the sheer number of converging hints pointing toward some kind of Half-Life-related development: internal group names, Source 2-related code fragments, leaked comments on the state of development, and now a fan-made “calendar math” theory based on the Steam marketing schedule. It’s entirely possible that fans are overthinking things yet again, but it’s equally possible that Valve really is preparing something – whether that’s a full-blown Half-Life 3, an HLX-titled follow-up, or a different project set in the same universe. For now, the answer is still “wait and see”, but one thing is certain: if a new Half-Life trailer actually drops in November, the internet is going to melt down in real time.

Sources:
– PC Guru – As crazy as it sounds, Half-Life 3 could be announced within days
– TheGamer – Half-Life 3 Could Be Announced On November 18, Fans Believe
– TheGamer – Half-Life 3 Trailer Rumored To Be In Production
– Notebookcheck – Half-Life 3 could be unveiled in November 2025
– Gagadget – Rumor: The long-awaited announcement of Half-Life 3 will be made in November
– Reddit – New Half-Life 3 is Almost Ready? – Gabe Follower